Working class whites are 52 percent of the electorate
American Prospect: The key weakness of the progressive coalition can be summarized easily: very weak support among white working class voters (defined here as whites without a four-year college degree).
In 2000, Al Gore lost white working-class voters by 17 percentage points; in 2004, John Kerry lost them by 23 points, a swing of 6 points against the Democrats. In contrast, Gore lost college-educated whites by 9 points and Kerry lost them by 10 points — not much change.
Eriposte: Let me pause there for a second and say this very slowly to some people. It wasn’t racism that led white working class voters to pick George Bush overwhelmingly over Vice President Al Gore or Sen. John Kerry.
American Prospect: Almost all of the white working-class movement toward Bush from 2000 to 2004 was among women rather than men. He substantially widened his margin among white working-class women, going from a 7-point edge in 2000 to an 18-point lead in 2004. That 11-point swing against the Democrats among white working-class women was arguably the most important single fact about the 2004 election.
Eriposte: It’s worth noting that white working class women are coming out in droves for Sen. Clinton. But I digress.
American Prospect: Bill Clinton actually carried white working-class voters in both his successful presidential campaigns (by a single percentage point in both instances).
White working-class voters are a larger portion of the electorate than indicated by the exit polls — 52 percent, rather than 43 percent.
Filed under: Obama Campaign
