This is what momentum looks like

MyDD:

With six days until next Tuesday’s Indiana and North Carolina primaries, Hillary Clinton seems to have translated her win in Pennsylvania into a real shift in momentum, a somewhat surprising turn of events considering this race has been largely momentum-proof. It began with a shift in the media narrative following her win from “what is she still doing in this thing?” to “why can’t Obama seal the deal?” and continued with what seemed like 4 uninterrupted days of Reverend Wright’s sabotage tour, which went unanswered until Tuesday. It was perfect storm for Clinton who has seen a boost in several metrics.

–In North Carolina, Obama’s 4-poll average lead pre-PA was 15%, today it’s 10%.

–In Indiana, whereas Obama led in the 3 polls directly leading up to the Pennsylvania primary and the one immediately following it, Clinton has been ahead in three of the last 4 polls in the state.

–Nationally, the shift toward Clinton has been most dramatic in the Newsweek poll, which showed her closing Obama’s 19 point lead pre-Pennsylvania to just a 7 point lead after it. As for the tracking polls, since April 22, Gallup’s results have shifted from Obama up 8 to Clinton up 1 and Rasmussen now has Obama up 4 whereas he was up 8 on primary day.

–In another reversal, Clinton is now performing better against McCain than Obama is in both the Rasmussen and Gallup head to head match-up tracking polls.

–Public perception seems to have changed as well judging by InTrade, which showed Clinton’s likelihood of winning the nomination go from 12% to 25% in a week (just about where the Rasmussen trading markets have her.)

2 Responses to “This is what momentum looks like”

  1. The reason it’s been “momentum proof” is that no matter what she wins or by how much, they act like it’s actually given her negative momentum and she should drop out immediately. While the tiniest win by Obama in the smallest red state caucus is treated like some kind of miracle.

  2. Token male, anyone?

    I think of it as a competition for a CEO position. Hillary should win.

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