Must Reads: Thrilla in Manila

Taylor Marsh on the Pennsylvania primary 47 days away. It’s time to start calling again like the nomination depends on it.

Ignore the media hype. Go under the assumption that Clinton is the underdog in Pennsylvania. Is she? No. But Obama is going to try to create an upset so he can be the nominee. Don’t let it happen. Start calling as if the entire nomination depends on it. It could, if only in perception. She’s got to win it big. With your help she will. Get busy.

Reclusive Leftist says Obama on track to win the nomination and lose the election and has the maps to prove it.

The problem is that Obama’s support is all wrong for a general election. He does great in red states where it doesn’t matter because they’re a lock for McCain in the general. In the Democratic strongholds (New York, California) he’s less popular than Hillary. And in the absolutely essential swing states of Ohio and Florida, again, voters prefer Hillary. It’s lovely that Obama is popular with Democrats in, you know, Utah, but let’s get real, people. See all those red states? That’s where Obama’s support is coming from. Democrats in those states can think he’s Jesus and it won’t count for squat in the general election. Ohio, Florida….sound familiar?

Aglachel or the new Digby’s “The Reality About Legitimacy” on the punditocracy’s fetishization of pledged delgates, the anti-democraticness of open vs. closed and caucus vs. primary contests and Michigan and Florida.

Open vs. closed contests. Just which people are being counted? For a very long time, Obama’s margin of victory was among Independents, not Democrats. He has run the notorious “Democrat for a Day” operation in at least three states (California, Florida, Nevada), explicitly urging Republicans to switch parties simply to vote against Hillary. To the degree that his support does not come from the party, his delegate count is suspect. What would contests look like rebalanced to show only Democratic support? Caucus vs. Primary. This, to me, is a far more pernicious and delegitimizing situation than open primaries, because the structure of a caucus has two anti-democratic effects.

Michigan is a self-inflicted wound for The Precious. He took his name off the ballot to try to deligitimize Hillary, and the strategy backfired on him. In Florida, he ran campaign ads and came off a power-house victory in South Carolina, only to be thoroughly snubbed by the voters of a state the Democrats must win in November (hmm, I’m sensing a pattern here). While a formal argument might be offered that Michigan shouldn’t be seated because of the ballot - though it was Barry’s choice to do so and it was done for strategic reasons - there is no reason to refuse to seat Florida at this point except to prevent a count of Hillary’s true support.

To try to wrangle a win out of a convention that does not seat Florida and Michigan is to lose massive amounts of legitimacy. Do you think my mother-in-law and all her senior female friends who turned out en masse to vote for Hillary in Florida are going to vote for Obama after he denies FL a voice at the convention? The pledged delegate count is not invalid or without merit, but it is far less definitive in the eyes of rank-and-file Democratic voters - the ones who have been favoring Hillary in big state primary contests - and they are not going to regard it as fully legitimate. My point is that what the rank and file Democrat thinks is legitimate may not be measured in the delegate count, and that the way in which Hillary and her committed supporters are treated is what will determine the final outcome.

Obama cannot win without Florida and Michigan, and they don’t want him. He is going to have to compromise, else he will lose all legitimacy. And that’s the cold, hard reality.

More of the fighting spirit I like in Francey Lim Youngberg’s “An Inconvenient Woman.”

Yesterday was March 4, a date that is also a command. I take that as an omen. Senator Hillary Clinton will march forth to the White House. Senator Clinton defied the media, the pundits and her detractors. She proved to be an “inconvenient woman” by rising phoenix-like from the ashes of 12 straight loses to fight another day.

I’m a fan of action films and boxing. Like Rocky Balboa, Senator Clinton took punches, body blows and hits below the belt. Every time she was knocked down and the referee started counting, she got up bloodied but unbowed. Senator Obama has shown that he can win in the early rounds but can he stay off the ropes late in the boxing match? Does he have a “glass jaw” as some have suggested?

As the economy spirals downward and Americans see their standard of living eroded, more and more will trade lofty ideals like “hope” and “change” for boring but detailed plans on achieving universal healthcare, stemming mortgage foreclosures, and spurring job creation. Ohio and Texas voters did. Now we shall see if Pennsylvania voters will too on April 22.

Today about 100 delegates separate the two candidates. According to the news accounts, regardless of who wins the remaining contests, the nomination will hinge on the superdelegates because neither candidate can accumulate enough pledged candidates to reach the magic 2,025 number. The prizefighter to bet on is Senator Clinton. She will not give up the fight.